NANAIMO — Citing several dynamics at play making both primary parties vulnerable in Saturday’s provincial election, a VIU political science professor says it’s difficult to get a read on how the night will go.
On balance, polling has been unfavourable to the NDP.
The the majority of mainstream polls throughout the campaign have predicted a narrow Conservative Party of BC majority government.
Dr. Michael MacKenzie senses baggage from the NDP, including what he deemed an unnecessary snap election, and the unpredictability of what a Conservative government could be, combine for a fascinating Saturday night in BC politics.
“You want to have good confidence that the party you’re voting for is in some ways in line with what you want to happen, and I think a lot of people in this provincial election are struggling to find that party,” MacKenzie told NanaimoNewsNOW.
“The Green party is not talking about green issues…The Green party is talking more about income and equality than they are about environmental issues” MacKenzie said.
Locally, Mackenzie said the mid-Vancouver Island ridings could factor into how the next provincial government is formed.
While he believes incumbent NDP MLA Sheila Malcolmson is well positioned to retain her Nanaimo-Gabriola Island seat, Mackenzie said the Conservatives have legitimate shots at stealing Nanaimo-Lantzville and Ladysmith-Oceanside from the NDP.
“George is vulnerable,” Mackenzie said, in reference to Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP incumbent George Anderson.
Anderson, a former Nanaimo city councillor, won the newly created riding by a relatively comfortable 3,620 votes in 2024.
Anderson’s primary opponent is the Conservative party’s Kelsey Pringle.
“She’s really a pretty strong candidate; she’s articulate, she’s young, I think she’s compassionate,” MacKenzie said of Pringle.
In power since the summer of 2017, MacKenzie said the BC NDP is flirting with being in opposition, largely due to the entirely preventable unforced error of an early snap election, two years prior to the 2028 scheduled election.
“Literally the next day the polls flipped in favour of the Conservatives and they mostly haven’t gone back,” MacKenzie said, noting simultaneous local and provincial elections have not been well received.
MacKenzie said the Sept. 22 snap election call by NDP leader David Eby spawned a highly negative theme that didn’t fade throughout the campaign.
Moreover, MacKenzie said with the BC Conservatives in disarray under previous leader Kerry-Lynn Findlay, all he said the NDP had to do was continue governing, while allowing the political landscape on the right to sort itself out.
MacKenzie said the likely emergence of the Centre BC movement, and potentially other organized right wing factions would have likely split the vote for the next election, allowing a clearer path for an NDP victory.
“He (David Eby) should have been figuring out ways to govern even though it was difficult. He made some blunders.”
While the BC NDP has numerous areas of vulnerability, including a record $13.8 billion budget deficit, MacKenzie said the Conservatives have many unanswered questions as well should they form government under interim leader Lorne Doerkson.
“We don’t know if the party’s together, if they win they’re likely going to have incentives to stay unified, but there’s still going to be divisions there,” Mackenzie said.
NanaimoNewsNOW and our six Island radio stations will be providing extensive BC election coverage on Saturday evening, including insight and immediate reaction on the local ridings.
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